Sixth-Generation Air Power

Article by Gregor Ferguson for Wings Magazine Vol. 77 No.1 wingsmagazine.org

THE RAAF IS ONE of the first air forces in the world to field a genuine fifth-generation capability. And it could field a sixth-generation replacement for its fourth-generation F/A-18F Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers by 2040, and elements of a broader sixth-generation capability much earlier than that.

Before exploring the sixth generation, let’s be clear on what a fifth-generation air combat capability is. It’s about stealthy fighters with lots of sensors. It’s also about connectivity, about sharing situational awareness (SA) from the radars, electronic warfare (EW) equipment and infrared sensors on our F -35s, Super Hornets and Growlers, P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and E-7A Wedgetail airborne early warning and control aircraft. It’s also about secure communications links passing targeting and SA data between them and associated air, maritime, ground and space nodes (some of them headquarters, some of them carrying weapons or sensors, some of them merely acting as communications relays).

Terms like fifth and sixth generation refer to the force’s overall capability and not just to one element of it, as the RAAF has proven in repeated operational deployments. However, technology, including manufacturing technology, is moving so quickly and the capabilities it enables are developing so fast that one simply can’t afford not to contemplate the sixth generation.

While the world’s leading air forces are contemplating their future needs, the US Air Force (USAF) is also contemplating re-engining the venerable B-52H Stratofortress to keep the aircraft flying into the 2050s and beyond, which would make the design more than a century old. At the same time, President Trump’s government-efficiency tsar, Elon Musk, wants to see manufacture of the F -35 stopped and the money diverted to the manufacture of uncrewed aerial systems (UASUnmanned Aircraft System (UAS): A comprehensive term used in military and regulatory contexts to describe the entire integrated ecosystem required to ... More).

And on Boxing Day 2024, China unveiled the Chengdu Aerospace Corporation (CAC) J-36 stealthy, sixth generation fighter-bomber – J-36 is still a temporary designation – and a smaller Shenyang fighter-size design (possibly optionally manned and carrier compatible) that could also be a sixth-generation aircraft.

All of which confirms the view that the point of balance between large and small aircraft and between crewed and uncrewed aircraft is shifting, and hasn’t settled as yet.

NEXT-GENERATION CAPABILITY

The broad characteristics of the sixth generation are:

• Crewed fighters or fighter-bombers with even more stealth than a fifth-generation aircraft

• Long-range to engage the enemy as far away as possible

• Optional crewing

• Very advanced active and passive sensors

• Enhanced man-machine integration to reduce the pilot workload

• Highly advanced digital capabilities, including AI, data fusion, EW and cyber warfare

• A systems architecture that includes Loyal Wingman-type UASs

• Low probability of intercept communications between aircraft and between them and other ‘nodes’ in space, in the air, at sea and on the ground

• Directed-energy weapons

• A friendly sensor environment, including HQs and reporting centres, that maintain SA in real time and gets target-quality data to appropriate weapons platforms extremely quickly

• Long-range air-air and strike weapons.

There are four principal sixth-generation development programs under way. The UK, Italy and Japan have formed a UK-based joint venture to support the design, development and delivery of the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP). The French, Germans and Spanish (and eventually the Belgians) are jointly developing the Future Combat Air System (FCAS). The USAF is exploring Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD), and the US Navy (USN) is contemplating its own F/A-XX NGAD program.

Meanwhile, the Russians are rolling out the Su-57 Felon and developing the sixth generation Su-75 Checkmate. The Chinese already have two stealthy fifth-generation fighters: the CAC J-20, which has been widely reported, and the more recent Shenyang FC‑31. China has also revealed two new sixth-generation aircraft, the triple-engined CAC J-36 and the twin-engined Shenyang design.

India is also contemplating rival fifth generation designs for its air force and navy (it can’t afford both). The Republic of Korea is developing the fifth-generation KAI KF-21 Boromae (Fighting Hawk) fighter, which is now in flight testing; and in Turkey, TAI is flight testing the Kaan fifth generation fighter. So potential threats and friendly aircraft abound.

What the four major allied sixth generation programs have in common is a crewed aircraft at their heart and the stated intent of using what the Americans call a collaborative combat aircraft (CCA). These will be autonomous, semi-stealthy aircraft with fighter-like range and speed. They will add mass to the airborne force, putting relatively long-range sensors and effectors in useful numbers on semi attritable platforms and keeping human aircrew out of harm’s way, at least some of the time. Semi-attritable? Most operators would prefer to risk losing a middling expensive, semi-stealthy UASUnmanned Aircraft System (UAS): A comprehensive term used in military and regulatory contexts to describe the entire integrated ecosystem required to ... More to losing a very expensive crewed fighter and its pilot.

These sixth-generation capabilities are a response to two things: most visibly, to the emergence of stealthy, long-range crewed Russian and Chinese platforms in significant numbers and stealthy, highspeed, long-range air-to-air and surface-to air weapons.

However, the allied sixth-generation programs also maintain national aerospace, AI, communications, quantum science and stealth research and development (R&D) programs, as well as a manufacturing sector that’s able to produce equipment embodying these technologies.

Manoeuvrability and agility remain important in a sixth-generation fighter, though most air combat now takes place at stand-off ranges so stealth, an excellent ceiling, good sensors, long range and long-range missiles matter relatively more in a manned fighter than agility. That said, the F -22’s agility (aided by thrust-vectoring engine nozzles) is significant; agility seems to be relatively less important in the F -35.

Like the F -22 and F -35, once a highly complex and expensive sixth-generation fighter design reaches the ‘lines freeze’ milestone, it’s impossible to enhance or change its acoustic, infrared and radio frequency signatures significantly. All the subsequent development work will go into its sensors, effectors, communications systems, cockpit systems and propulsion, and maybe into its surface coatings. Which is why it’s so important to get the manned platform right: once you’ve got it, you’re stuck with it.

It also means that flight-critical software must be kept separate from sensor and weapon software. The latter may need to be changed relatively quickly and operators don’t want a lengthy, painstaking platform integration program with every update in combat capability, nor the expensive vendor lock-in that seems to go with it.

The R&D workload will be massive because, at least for the first iteration of each family of crewed aircraft, its sensors, effectors, communications and propulsion systems must be considered in parallel with the platform itself. Furthermore, there is no point in fielding an exquisite, crewed sixth-generation aircraft without a supporting fleet of CCAs – so the R&D necessary to develop the CCAs needs to be considered also.

This all suggests a much more intimate relationship between industry and end users: an environment that enables a rapid exchange of views and information and rapid iteration of new technologies.

What is Australia’s interest in a sixth-generation air combat capability? The life of type of Super Hornet and Growler will be 2040, according to a Defence spokesperson: “Both capabilities will receive lethality and survivability upgrades, while maintaining their interoperability with the United States and other key partners.”

“The F -35A continues to be Australia’s most capable and survivable aircraft for conducting air-to-air combat missions against advanced threat aircraft and air surface missions against well-shielded targets. Continued investment in the F -35A fleet will provide incremental improvements to the aircraft’s capabilities for decades to come.”

So, we may see a sixth-generation fighter enter RAAF service from around 2040-ish. What about CCAs? The RAAF could buy an American or European CCA, simply to reduce integration, project management and supply chain challenges and expense. But the RAAF is still looking closely at the Australian-developed, semi-stealthy BoeingThe Boeing Company: A global aerospace leader and one of the world’s largest defense contractors, specializing in the design and manufacture of milita... More Defence Australia MQ-28A Ghost Bat.

In February 2024, Defence announced the allocation of an additional $399 million for the ongoing development of the Ghost Bat. That will see the delivery of three Block 2 aircraft with enhanced design and improved capabilities as well as enable further development of the MQ-28A mission payloads, integrated combat system, and autonomous systems. It also includes a series of events throughout 2025 to demonstrate operational integration of these capabilities with in-service assets, according to Defence.

Each of the major sixth-generation programs is highly classified and only artists’ impressions of the crewed fighters, and even some of the CCAs, exist.

GCAP

The UK-Italy-Japan GCAP, formerly a UK-led program based on the Anglo-Italian Tempest and Japanese F -X sixth-generation projects, is currently scheduled to enter service as a replacement for UK and Italian Typhoon and Japanese F -2 fighters in about 2035. The supersonic technology demonstrator (of which no images exist) passed its critical design review in mid-2024. It will use the UK Pyramid open-architecture avionics system to hasten and simplify capability upgrades.

The CCA will be provided by the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) under the Lightweight Affordable Novel Combat Aircraft (LANCA) program. A first attempt to build a CCA under Project Mosquito was cancelled in mid-2022 when the MoD announced more beneficial cost-effective alternatives were available, but it hasn’t expanded on those.

NGAD

The USAF is currently re-thinking the crewed fighter portion of its NGAD program, which is designed to start replacing the F -22 Raptor in around 2030. Cost is a major consideration.

The USAF is simultaneously developing the B-21 Raider and a replacement for the Minuteman III ICBM.

The service is now seeking a crewed fighter at a much lower price, comparable to the F -35. So, the USAF may consider ‘disaggregating’ major subsystems such as the radar or weapons of a crewed fighter and moving them to other platforms such as CCAs. Likely airframe contractors (at this stage) are Lockheed Martin and BoeingThe Boeing Company: A global aerospace leader and one of the world’s largest defense contractors, specializing in the design and manufacture of milita... More. Northrop Grumman withdrew from the contest in 2024. Meanwhile the NGAD’s variable cycle Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) program continues, with the General ElectricGeneral Electric (GE) Aerospace: A foundational American industrial corporation that pioneered the development of jet propulsion in the United States.... More XA-102 and the Pratt & Whitney XA-103 competing.

At the time of writing, the USAF was deferring decisions on the future of its NGAD until after the Trump administration took over in late-January.

Meanwhile the USAF CCA program continues and currently sees Anduril, with a version (probably) of its Fury UASUnmanned Aircraft System (UAS): A comprehensive term used in military and regulatory contexts to describe the entire integrated ecosystem required to ... More, competing with General Atomics with its XQ-67A UASUnmanned Aircraft System (UAS): A comprehensive term used in military and regulatory contexts to describe the entire integrated ecosystem required to ... More. Future iterations of the program would allow other players to submit CCA designs also.

F/A-XX NGAD

The US Navy (USN) is working independently on its own NGAD program which includes a new, multi-role F/A-XX 6th generation fighter which is due to replace the service’s F/A‑18 Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers from some time in the 2030s. Airframe primes will be chosen from BoeingThe Boeing Company: A global aerospace leader and one of the world’s largest defense contractors, specializing in the design and manufacture of milita... More, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman. The program is fighting with the Virginia-class submarine program for finite funds, but the crewed fighter could achieve Milestone B and move to engineering and manufacturing development as soon as late-2025.

The F/A-XX is designed explicitly to work with CCAs, the first of which will likely be the semi-stealthy BoeingThe Boeing Company: A global aerospace leader and one of the world’s largest defense contractors, specializing in the design and manufacture of milita... More MQ-25 Stingray Carrier-Based Aerial Refuelling System which may also be the platform for stealthier intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and kinetic CCAs.

FCAS

The France-Germany-Spain FCAS program aims to replace those countries’ Eurofighter

Typhoons and Dassault Rafale Cs by around 2040. Phase 1B, which will define the technologies to be incorporated in FCAS, as well as the ratio of CCAs to crewed aircraft, is under way after some wrangling over workshare. Phase 2 should begin in mid 2025 with a decision on the configuration of the crewed fighter slightly ahead of that.

The FCAS team members are keeping their cards close to their chests. However, the team says the so-called remote carriers (or CCAs) must cost a fraction of crewed fighters because they will be the primary risk-takers and will face higher attrition rates. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine a force of CCAs flying well ahead of manned aircraft, or supporting land or sea-based weapons platforms, to conduct ISR missions, providing or confirming targeting details for weapons with ranges of several hundred kilometres, and conducting other EW-related missions.

And it’s no coincidence that EW is one of the six technologies identified as a priority in AUKUS Pillar 2, along with advanced cyber, AI and autonomy, quantum, and hypersonic and counter-hypersonic capabilities. These are all an indivisible part of a sixth-generation air combat capability, and they are the technology challenges facing both operators and innovators.